1878s Top 30 Rarity List

[Flat-Chested]

It would be very nice if we could have a top 30 rarity list for 1878 San Francisco Morgans. The first coin in the list being the rarest, perhaps followed by a number indicating the number of problem-free graded examples. That latter single number would be a result of combining of the ANACS, NGC and PCGS slabbed coins. I imagine we could have a simple top 30 rarity list. I hope I can get support for this.

[demetri]

I would support that. The 1878 S is a great choice

[morganman]

Any year that has this many vams is overwhelming to attribute and yes could be much
more user friendly if broken to TOP 30 or etc Very daunting to try attrib these and mostly
i give up and have pros do it for a few bucks

WAY to many vams overall and not enough time or Patience for sure

[vamnuke]

No interest here; already there are Top 30 and Top 30 complete sets, not based just on rarity. Population reports in SSDC registry for individual varieties are not entirely accurate either as lots of collectors don’t participate.

[DHalladay]

No interest here; already there are Top 30 and Top 30 complete sets, not based just on rarity. Population reports in SSDC registry for individual varieties are not entirely accurate either as lots of collectors don’t participate.

What you're talking about is a "fewest registered" set – which can often have no correlation with rarity, since there are coins people just don't care about and they don't get registered.

[vampicker]

It's worth noting that between the various other lists - Top 100, Hot 50, Hit List 40, and WOW! - you come up with 29 coins

BTW, Van Allen did a Top 30 years ago when he did that 78-S guide with Craig Lickenbrock

[Flat-Chested]

The Top 100, Hot 50, Hit List 40 and WOW! lists all contain coins where the known examples are of large numbers. Few of the 1878s Morgans that are in these lists would have less than 20 known examples. Agreed there are problems with determining the exact numbers of assorted VAMS, but these issues are nearly non-existent for the rarest of the VAMS. Perhaps there could be a list made of the 1878s VAMS where it is believed that they exist in quantities of 20 specimens and less.

[vampicker]

Sounds like you have some writing to do

[Flat-Chested]

I do not have sufficient knowledge to make the list. Some who have the knowledge keep it to themselves and allow an obviously false rarity scale to be perpetuated on this site.

[messydesk]

Dennis touches on the underlying issue with a rarity list -- supply doesn't imply demand. If there are only 5 known of a certain variety and 3 collectors who want it, there are more than enough to go around. Those 3 collectors now have an interest in getting other collectors to compete for the 2 remaining coins to drive the value of their coins, as well as related coins, up in value. Creating a "chase list" brings them to people's attention.

Of course, now other lists with other such rarities are ripe for the making by people with similar interests. Before long, you have a huge amount of lists, all pointing out legitimate rarities to an overwhelmed audience in a hobby that is already perceived as confusing by outsiders and newcomers.

A limited number of lists does have a benefit. The Top 100 list brought VAM collecting back from the dead with a nice variety of coins of varying rarity. The Hot 50 and Hit List 40 gave people more varieties to chase while they matured in the hobby and made discoveries about it. Collectors found what they liked collecting and studying, what coins are interesting or rare or both, and even what things besides the coins were interesting. These collectors are now guiding their own collecting goals. The Wow List is an example of this, as it picked many from existing lists and added more.

So how to determine and point out rarity? As @LateDateMorganGuy would recommend, die studies, die studies, and die studies. Look at a thousand or two coins and you find out what's really rare within a date and mint. If you find something that's both rare and cool, point it out to others while you look for more examples for yourself.

What type of rarity list would be helpful for 78-S? 5 or 6 cool "stoppers" mentioned in an introductory paragraph on the 78-S page, perhaps. It would provide insight to people interested in collecting the date without being a formal list, much like a simple and brief intro to Morgan dollars would say the 89-CC, 93-S and 94 are key dates. There are people who have been studying and collecting 78-S that could come up with what these would be.

[DHalladay]

Defining "rarity" is a huge can of worms.

Is the list you have in mind going to look at date+mint mark alone, or will it take grade-PL-DMPL into consideration? For example, all 10 of the Long Nock VAMs are exquisitely rare in any Mint State grade.

[Flat-Chested]

Perhaps what would work to highlight the rarity of some coins is a list of 1878s VAMS that have 20 and fewer representatives of any known clear grade. Perhaps another category would be of the coins where there are from 21 to 50 known representatives of any known clear grade.

I understand that some of the VAMS such as the Spaghetti wings are found in quantities yet are seldom offered for sale as they are kept in private collections. Then there are coins such as the SF Long Nocks where even the most rare of them would only be found within the 21-50 list, and are rarely offered for sale.

In retrospect, I think we would be better served by these sort of lists (1-20 and 21-50 representatives) as opposed to a Top 30 Rarity list. At least having such information available would be helpful to me.

[vamnuke]

Perhaps what would work to highlight the rarity of some coins is a list of 1878s VAMS that have 20 and fewer representatives of any known clear grade. Perhaps another category would be of the coins where there are from 21 to 50 known representatives of any known clear grade.

I understand that some of the VAMS such as the Spaghetti wings are found in quantities yet are seldom offered for sale as they are kept in private collections. Then there are coins such as the SF Long Nocks where even the most rare of them would only be found within the 21-50 list, and are rarely offered for sale.

In retrospect, I think we would be better served by these sort of lists (1-20 and 21-50 representatives) as opposed to a Top 30 Rarity list. At least having such information available would be helpful to me.

You can make your own list by looking at SSDC pop reports assuming you are a member. If it, then please consider joining and the info you seek will be at your disposal. Again, echoing others, take the data for what it is. Many collectors choose to keep their holdings private. Plus, there are very few 78-S die variety collectors.

[fogie]

To add mud to the already muddy issue - There are 8 listings that have an SSDC POP of 0 (1878-S VAMs-11, 12, 25, 54, 61, 67, 85, & 94). Personally, I do not believe they exist - cataloguing errors. Then there are the unique listings of which there are 4 (1878-S VAMs-1, 51.2, 71 & 90). Again, I do not believe they exist - cataloguing / attribution errors - here we begin to step on toes... 1878-S VAMs with 2 in the SSDC POP are limited to just one - the 1878-S VAM-115. 1878-S VAMs with 3 in the SSDC POP are limited to just 3 (10, 16A (a new listing) and 112. There are no listings with 4 in the SSDC POP. 1878-S VAMs with 5 examples in the SSDC POP are limited to 7 (They are VAMs 1G.3, 68, 78.5, 86.3, 88, 110, & 113). There are the rarest 23 in the SSDC registry and they represent more controversy than the rest of them combined! Good luck! (There are 23 1878-S sets in the SSDC registry - only the 1878-P has more (as far as date / mintmark sets goes....).)

[78-sLongnock]

SSDC needs to delete 1, 2, 54, 61, 85, and 94 from the 1878-s Sets
They are in the “May not exist list” in VW
If one surfaces like the one I found (Vam 10) then we can re-add it.

[vamnuke]

51.2, 71, & 90 do exist!!

[fogie]

Good to hear 51.2, 71, & 90 do exist!! I would like to see the others disappear but it is really not possible to PROVE that something does not exist.

[LateDateMorganGuy]

I agree Brent. But the precedent for removing something from a VAM list that someone doesn't believe exists was set with the 89-CC VAM-4A a long time ago. I protested, but was told to pound dirt. It just depends on who you are and what connections you have with the SSDC Registry police.

[fogie]

I am the SSDC registry police right now. Removing a coin from the SSDC registry does not delist it any more than removing it from VAMworld 2.0 (& anyone can do that (at least once...)). I am trying to keep the registry VERY close to the official listing regardless of what I think. Delisting is hard & it really should be (I know I snivel a lot about it - but it really should be hard to do). I think we are in good hands with the Johns driving. I will continue to snivel when I do not get my way but that is just how life is. I really like the idea of removing these things we are really quite sure do not exist and then putting them back in when someone calls us on it (shows that it really does exist). I guess I will pound some dirt and snivel - AND VAMon! Have a great weekend!

[morganman]

Sure sounds as if a great idea to de list if non known, and add if found
Already to many vams and confusing, not to mention the varied Die states within some,
making it much more challenging to value some.

Way to complicated for newbies of which i fear lose interest vary fast,not to return

Some member/members brainacs may be able to come up with some solutions to this
complex issues i hope.