O/T Metals /Volatility/Bigger Picture

[morganman]

Boy what a total mess, as commodity mkts
are experiencing unprecidented highs &
natrually Volatility.

The big boys; ie: Super funds-Central Banks
Insurance Conglomerates are taking advantage
of these wide swing markets/volatility, to enter
and exit mkts speculating as always, buying
then exiting (selling) for profit or gloss, many
using various computer generated buy/sell
programs. Its all big money speculation using
funds held from common clients like us.

Various commodity sectors; Grains,Livestock,
Crude oil, Food, have experienced all time
exchange highs. Palladium reached over
$3300 per oz, for a metal that was $400
a few yrs ago. Supply/Demand
on avg, one contract of any commodity has
seen roughly a $2k-5k daily trade range which is crazy. It seems all quite un sustainable, with periodic crashes occuring.
Retailers,fast food etc are all struggling to
keep product in stock & all prices are increasing fast. All scary scenerios.

Back to Metals; Silver has been the laggard
of all commodities as Gold
Platinum, Especially Palladium
have enjoyed decent price
increases.
Now it looks as though events & time have
finally started to spark interest in silver.
Those darn funds speculating with futures
makes it tough to get a handle on real
fundamentals of any mkt today.
Looks like $28.50/ then $30 is silver upside
resistance. Good things happen to people
who wait/patience. ;LOL
Gold wanting to stay above 2k seems to be
a telling story of metals mkt direction.

[Longstrider]

Thanks for you, always appreciated by me, incites Scott. Everybody, well talking TV heads, are talking about nickel. What is your thoughts on that metal? Thanks. John

[morganman]

John; Quite a few secondary
metals like Aluminum,Nickel & a few high
dollar ones like titanium, are all experiencing
supply shortages with prices ballistic.

So with that said, heres a non typical market
occurance. Crude Oil= Wed drops 11%
or $16.00 barrel. Thats $16,000 per contract
on the commodity exchange. Would hate
to be on wrong side of that mess.
All because UAE decides to issue a 360
degree turn around & calls for opec to
open taps on production.

Any market is subject to violent swings
crazy volatility, when grossly overbought
or oversold. Super caution advised if one
even considers playing these mkts today
Mostly, keep money and go enjoy a nice
vacation. All IMHO

[Longstrider]

I like the hint. Thanks. John

[blh74]

Thanks Morganman. So much to learn, maybe one day.....

[morganman]

Very frustrating market- As soon as i say it looks like gold
wants to stay above $2k it goes south to around $1925
with silver dropping hard to around $24.50.
Feds increase discount int rate by .25 and ukraine fighting
continues as well as U S inflation continues super high.
This really means gold & silver should be going ballistic, but no
they sell off hard.

This all probally because these issues were already priced
into this mkt, with "Buy The Rumor", "Sell The Fact" standard
scenario within the commodity trading community.
So tonight trade 3-16 sees Gold gaining to about $1950
and silver around $25.50 which keeps moving averages
and ie: Bull Mkt well intact
Palladium dropped around 1k per oz the last 4 trade sessions
from $3300-3400 to around $2300 with crude oil hammered
to around $95-97 er barrel

Talk about volatility /craziness
I guarantee playing with vams and coins is a heck of a lot
more fun than setting on and waiting/hoping SILVER to
make a run. Frustrating, but guess one has to just be patient

[Longstrider]

Thanks.

[Kurt28]

I always appreciate your posts.
And when my views or understanding differs from yours (as with every other expert I have encountered in life) I ask myself, "What did I miss?"
There have been times when I was the smartest man in the room, but for the most part, I learn more by being the least educated man in the room.
As a retired small arms salesman, I recall the mantra, "Before you buy the rifle, buy the book."
The same is true of coins, cars, plants, butterflies, etc.
I don't have the resources to be a high roller, but I have the chance to learn, and when the time is right, I will make a more informed decision.
Thank you for your input.

[morganman]

End of March Update: The market Bears are having their way within
the Gold & Silver Markets.
200 day technical moving averages are continually
being challenged, which could open the door to
large downside losses.
Buyers are coming in at support levels gold at $1920
and silver $24.80/$2500 but appear weak as central
banks & super funds continue to sell all rallies.
Current fundamentals look weak and subject to sell
offs. $1900 gold support & $25 silver open the gates
to 1800 gold & 22.50/22.00 silver
Even the experts are unsure of mkt direction but the
Big Players are short the market.

A frustrating whip sawing volatile mkt undecided on
direction. I have hedged my massive physical silver
position using silver PUT Options that dont expire for
almost 2 yrs. If mkt goes south i can cash the options
in (paper assets), keep my silver . as intended and
capitilize on when mkt heads north (up).

A great play that has little risk over time.
Figuring how to play the game is paramount and
a huge profit oppertunity withot risking the bank LOL

[terryi2o]

As I write this post setting on my couch waiting for the ‘22 mens final 4 to begin, I’m pondering silvers ups and downs. Back in 2020 when silver was under $14 an .OZ and Covid was just starting to wreck havoc on the world, I bought 500 ounces of silver thinking that the value would increase big time! I was hoping for another $50 silver market!! And after two years it hasn’t happened. The gold silver ratio is around 77, which doesn’t make since with all that’s going on, including, Covid, inflation, fuel prices, home prices, the Ukrainian-Russian war! Honestly, the silver I’m setting on computes to a small fortune for my family and I. Should i wait and hope for that windfall I was hoping for or cash out now and be grateful for the profit I’ve gained??

[morganman]

Tue 3-5-22 7:28 AM Oregon

As usual i sit drinking coffee & watching Gold/Silver commodity exchange trading
My phone rings and its a chicago trader friend who asks if i have seen mkt this
am. He goes on to say Gold has a $1300 per contract price swing. I tell him so
what silver has a $2000 per contract swing, which both arenot uncommon in
todays crazy trade world.

The mkt bulls ran early today, pushing prices much higher, got exhaused,couldnt
maintain & mkt bears began power selling & taking profits. Amazing to see $5
per oz gold moves in 3 minutes time.
Its areal battle currently with a negative bias, but anyones game/guess
300 ukrainian dead bodies internet pics that many are landmined, are spooking
all mkts today. May all this cease ASAP

[Longstrider]

How many ounces or whatever in a gold or silver contract? Thanks Buddy.

[morganman]

JOHN; (Longstrider) Since you asked about commodity contract size in
Gold/Silver, here is my extended answer. LOL

Commodities exchanges have various groups with
individual listings such as Livestock group on Chicago
mercantile Exchange consisting of: Live Cattle (fats ready
for slaughter) feeder cattle 800 # ready for feedyard,
Live hogs(ready fo slaughter) 200-230 avg

Metals Complex (New York) Gold 100 oz per contract
silver 5,000 oz- platinum-palladium-copper-aluminum
and a few more
Financiaks= Bonds, & several more
Currencies= U S dollsr-british pound-japanese yen-
Australian dollar- many more
FOODS= Cocoa-Coffee- Milk-Butter
Grains= Corn-Wheat- soybeans- soy meal- soyoil
50 + commodities total

Commodities make up the worlds largest dollar amount in world,
surpassing the Stock Exchange & Bond mkts Amazing- Worlds largest
trading mkts

[Longstrider]

Got it. Thanks Scott.

[blh74]

The big picture just got a lot bigger for me. Thanks Scott.